Chain of InsightSTORRQUE INTELLIGENCE

Reading no. 01

A global signal, a local decision

September 2026 supply-chain pressure in historical context

September 2026 supply-chain pressure is above the index’s long-run average. April’s increase ranks third in the acquired January 1998 onward workbook, while the direction of a twelve-month comparison changes with the start date. This reading asks what purchasing and operations managers should examine locally before changing a commitment. Data acquired 10 October 2026.

Read this report’s methodSources and supporting materials
Version 0.1Publication date

Preserved address: Version 0.1. Correction history.

At a glance · From the reading
1.28GSCPI 2026-092026-09 · standard deviations from index historical average
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York
0.63GSCPI 2026-032026-03 · standard deviations from index historical average
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York
1.78GSCPI 2026-042026-04 · standard deviations from index historical average
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

The reading

Key findings

OBSERVED

September 2026 reads 1.28 points above the index’s long-run average. Of 345 months, January 1998 to September 2026, 33 (9.57%) are at or above its exact level. Among prior months in the displayed window, only April and May 2026 reach that level after December 2022 (1.36).

Calculated by Chain of Insight from: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Read supporting evidence
OBSERVED

April 2026 rises 1.16 points from March. It ranks third among 344 consecutive monthly changes, February 1998 to September 2026, with no other change tied at that rank. It is the largest increase between months in the displayed sixty-month window.

Calculated by Chain of Insight from: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Read supporting evidence
OBSERVED

Comparing the first and last twelve-month means gives −2.16 points for the latest 60 months, +1.04 for the latest 36 and +1.47 for the acquired 345 months. The sign of the difference reverses across these three starts.

Calculated by Chain of Insight from: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Read supporting evidence

The current level, in context

How much weight should a purchasing manager put on a global pressure signal when reviewing a local commitment? September 2026 is above the index's long-run average, following a sharp April increase. The acquired January 1998 onward workbook puts both in context. It does not say which supplier or route changed.

OBSERVED

September 2026 reads 1.28 points above the index’s long-run average. Of 345 months, January 1998 to September 2026, 33 (9.57%) are at or above its exact level. Among prior months in the displayed window, only April and May 2026 reach that level after December 2022 (1.36).

Calculated by Chain of Insight from: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Sources: Global Supply Chain Pressure Index

OBSERVED

April 2026 rises 1.16 points from March. It ranks third among 344 consecutive monthly changes, February 1998 to September 2026, with no other change tied at that rank. It is the largest increase between months in the displayed sixty-month window.

Calculated by Chain of Insight from: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Sources: Global Supply Chain Pressure Index

The path behind the reading

Exhibit 1 · Global Supply Chain Pressure Index

OBSERVED

Oct 2021 to Sep 2026 · standard deviations from index historical average

On smaller screens, scroll the chart horizontally to read its labels.

Monthly GSCPI, Oct 2021 to Sep 2026, in standard deviations above or below its long-run average. March 2026 reads 0.63, April 1.78 and September 1.28. Readings fall below zero during much of 2023–2025. The sixty-row table in the Appendix gives every month.
Pressure rose sharply in April 2026; September remains above the long-run average.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York; retrieved 2026-10-10. Transformation: Select the latest 60 complete monthly rows from the independently acquired issuer workbook. Plot original released values; table rounds each to two decimals. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Global Supply Chain Pressure Index. Issuer component credits: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Harper Petersen Holding GmbH; Baltic Exchange; IHS Markit; Institute for Supply Management; Haver Analytics; Refinitiv; issuer authors’ calculations. Derived chart/table by Chain of Insight; no issuer endorsement. Original issuer source: https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/gscpi. Limit: The issuer may revise observations. No uncertainty band is estimated; the index does not measure an individual supplier or route.

Sources: Global Supply Chain Pressure Index

OBSERVED

The displayed path starts at 4.02 points in October 2021 and ends at 1.28 in September 2026, a difference of −2.74 points.

Calculated by Chain of Insight from: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Sources: Global Supply Chain Pressure Index

Does the starting period change the answer?

OBSERVED

Comparing the first and last twelve-month means gives −2.16 points for the latest 60 months, +1.04 for the latest 36 and +1.47 for the acquired 345 months. The sign of the difference reverses across these three starts.

Calculated by Chain of Insight from: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Sources: Global Supply Chain Pressure Index

Show values
Table 1 · Three starts, equal twelve-month comparisons · GSCPI standard-deviation points · Federal Reserve Bank of New York data acquired 10 Oct 2026; calculations by Chain of Insight. Means and differences calculated before rounding.
WindowFirst twelve-month meanLast twelve-month meanLast minus first
Oct 2021 to Sep 20262.97 (Oct 2021 to Sep 2022)0.82 (Oct 2025 to Sep 2026)−2.16
Oct 2023 to Sep 2026−0.23 (Oct 2023 to Sep 2024)0.82 (Oct 2025 to Sep 2026)+1.04
Jan 1998 to Sep 2026−0.66 (Jan 1998 to Dec 1998)0.82 (Oct 2025 to Sep 2026)+1.47

The three comparisons share the same final twelve months. They change only the starting window and its first twelve months. The shorter chart starts during the exceptional pressure of 2021; a lower ending value should not become the headline for current conditions. A comparison with the quieter periods at the other two starts gives the opposite sign. None predicts the next month.

What the index measures

INTERPRETATION

We read the index as a broad signal combining transportation-cost measures and manufacturing-survey components. The surveys cover China, the euro area, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, the United Kingdom and the United States; the transport measures have their own coverage. Zero is the index’s historical average; one point here means one standard deviation above or below it. The issuer’s attempt to adjust for demand does not establish that demand is fully removed, or describe every firm or route.

Interpretation by Chain of Insight; source evidence from: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Sources: Global Supply Chain Pressure Index: current release and FAQ

Three questions for an operations review

Decision use

These are Chain of Insight’s questions for an operations review, not New York Fed advice or an instruction to change stock, suppliers or delivery promises. Answer them with your own records; no local change is established by this index.

  1. Have quoted lead times from your largest overseas suppliers changed since April 2026?
  2. Are current freight quotes on your Asia-origin lanes above their March 2026 level?
  3. Which safety stocks or reorder points still rely on lead-time assumptions that have not been checked against current supplier records?

Interpretation by Chain of Insight; source evidence from: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Sources: Global Supply Chain Pressure Index: current release and FAQ

Use supplier quotations and their promised dates for the first question; compare freight quotes for the same lane and service for the second; retain the last review date and assumptions behind inventory settings for the third. The index makes these questions worth examining. It supplies none of their answers.

What this reading does not establish

OBSERVED

The issuer’s current summary for September estimates reports August 2026 revised from an initial 1.06 to 1.20 points. A recent reading can change; this is one reported revision, not a revision study.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York · 2026-08 · standard deviations from index historical average; 2026-08 · standard deviations from index historical average

Sources: Global Supply Chain Pressure Index: current release and FAQ

Unknown: the size of future revisions, the causes of the April change and the effect on any individual supplier or route. The issuer may revise recent months when estimated inputs are replaced; historical values can also differ between releases. Current normalization weights and sample were not independently established. No practitioner evidence was collected, and no forecast, operating threshold or claim of greater stability is made.

Unknown · Reason: Future data revisions and local operating evidence are unavailable; the released composite and descriptive calculations cannot identify causes or individual outcomes.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Sources: Global Supply Chain Pressure Index: current release and FAQGlobal Supply Chain Pressure Index: release-vintage data

Appendix: monthly values

The table gives all sixty displayed months so the chart can be read without relying on its visual shape. The full historical calculation input stays private; links to the issuer and exact source digests are in the source record.

Show monthly values (60 rows)
Table 2 · Values behind Global Supply Chain Pressure Index · standard deviations from index historical average · Oct 2021 to Sep 2026
Monthstandard deviations from index historical average
2021-10+4.02
2021-11+4.39
2021-12+4.43
2022-01+3.73
2022-02+2.81
2022-03+2.89
2022-04+3.52
2022-05+2.80
2022-06+2.48
2022-07+1.90
2022-08+1.55
2022-09+1.14
2022-10+1.25
2022-11+1.32
2022-12+1.36
2023-01+1.02
2023-02−0.27
2023-03−1.21
2023-04−1.31
2023-05−1.56
2023-06−1.08
2023-07−0.95
2023-08−1.02
2023-09−0.64
2023-10−0.37
2023-11+0.20
2023-12−0.13
2024-01−0.29
2024-02−0.18
2024-03−0.38
2024-04−0.97
2024-05−0.59
2024-06−0.30
2024-07−0.04
2024-08+0.20
2024-09+0.13
2024-10−0.37
2024-11−0.37
2024-12−0.36
2025-01−0.26
2025-02−0.12
2025-03−0.25
2025-04−0.34
2025-05+0.18
2025-06−0.01
2025-07+0.03
2025-08−0.08
2025-09−0.04
2025-10−0.15
2025-11−0.21
2025-12+0.47
2026-01+0.36
2026-02+0.49
2026-03+0.63
2026-04+1.78
2026-05+1.81
2026-06+1.21
2026-07+0.93
2026-08+1.20
2026-09+1.28

Evidence, method and source record

Evidence thread

  1. source

    Official workbook independently acquired 10 Oct 2026; original bytes and source digest retained.

  2. measure

    September 2026: 1.28 points above the index long-run average.

  3. transformation

    Compare full-precision April-minus-March with 344 consecutive monthly changes; independently reconcile.

  4. observation

    April’s rise ranks third; current level and window comparisons provide separate context.

  5. reading

    The mean-comparison sign reverses with the start date; an endpoint decline is not a general conclusion.

  6. next question

    Check supplier lead times, freight quotes and inventory assumptions using local records.

This chain establishes traceability, not causal proof.

Method

  1. Data: New York Fed GSCPI workbook independently acquired 10 October 2026; latest released observation September 2026. Acquired workbook: 345 ordered consecutive monthly observations, January 1998 to September 2026. Exhibit 1 and Table 2 show the latest 60, October 2021 to September 2026. The separately acquired release-CSV also includes September to December 1997, outside this bounded workbook analysis.
  2. Historical context: monthly levels are compared with the full-precision September 2026 value (1.284014886203148), inclusive of equality and of September itself. 33/345=9.57% describes months in the acquired data, not independent events or a future probability. April’s rank is 1+the number of strictly larger adjacent changes among 344; two are larger, no other change ties. Its rank within the displayed window uses 59 adjacent changes.
  3. Window test: each start compares its first twelve months with the same final twelve months, October 2025 to September 2026. Starts are October 2021 (60 months), October 2023 (36 months) and January 1998 (345 months). These selected starts test dependence; they are not an exhaustive sensitivity or revision study.
  4. Reproduction: two separately written calculation programs checked all 345 date/value pairs, 344 changes, counts, ranks and means; results agree within 1e−9 point. Both use the same xlrd workbook decoder and issuer source. Their agreement cannot rule out a shared decoding or source error or validate the issuer’s underlying estimates. Workbook versus release-CSV agreement remains checked only for the previously selected 60 rows at two decimals.
  5. Precision: display index levels, differences, means and historical shares to two decimals using round half up; calculate on original released values before rounding. Counts and ordinal ranks are exact integers. No percentage change of this zero-centred index is calculated.
  6. Provenance: the chart, table and calculations are original Chain of Insight derivatives of issuer data, not copied issuer exhibits. No original workbook, source paper, dataset or replication download is offered; conditional issuer permissions and notices apply to the published composite; no rights to proprietary component inputs are claimed.
  7. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Global Supply Chain Pressure Index. Issuer component credits: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Harper Petersen Holding GmbH; Baltic Exchange; IHS Markit; Institute for Supply Management; Haver Analytics; Refinitiv; issuer authors’ calculations. The GSCPI is not an official estimate of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, its President, the Federal Reserve System or the Federal Open Market Committee. The issuer did not prepare or endorse this analysis. Source citation: https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/gscpi. Issuer terms apply; the source ledger and public reuse notice retain applicable conditions and restrictions.

Limits

  1. One acquisition: recent estimates and earlier observations may be revised; no revision-size analysis was performed.
  2. The three starts are a bounded comparison, not evidence of a general trend, cause or forecast. Historical shares and ranks are not local decision thresholds.
  3. Both calculations share the original issuer data and xlrd decoder. Component estimates, current normalization weights and sample were not independently reproduced.
  4. No practitioner evidence, individual supplier or route outcome, operational recommendation or issuer endorsement. Conditional issuer permissions and notices apply; no proprietary input rights or issuer endorsement is claimed.

Source ledger

Global Supply Chain Pressure Index

Federal Reserve Bank of New York · retrieved 2026-10-10T19:41:14.078878+00:00 · verified · rights: Issuer-published composite; conditional derivative use under issuer terms with title, attribution, modification identification and pass-through conditions. This publication offers no workbook redistribution; no proprietary component reconstruction.

Original source SHA-256 781bc95d377d235563c9be9a63042af02b803b6c5ffb6f3dd1148d0a23a5d301

Global Supply Chain Pressure Index: current release and FAQ

Federal Reserve Bank of New York · retrieved 2026-10-10T19:41:13.691345+00:00 · verified · rights: Cite and independently explain factual definitions with attribution; no copied issuer chart, logo or bulk FAQ export.

Original source SHA-256 7a3402aa2962f616f672345b532da7a8f3ebff77ecba7ae37f55cab283e59ae8

Global Supply Chain Pressure Index: release-vintage data

Federal Reserve Bank of New York · retrieved 2026-10-10T19:41:14.351832+00:00 · verified · rights: Verification and descriptive analysis only; no source CSV or downloadable extract offered.

Original source SHA-256 98aad77bbc4cedfe4c1c700531324b03f2c677d793e2d5e5fddeae92f61009ae

Terms of Use

Federal Reserve Bank of New York · retrieved 2026-10-10T19:40:00.418187+00:00 · verified · rights: Cite official terms and paraphrase conditions. Terms are not public domain and no rights in third-party content are inferred.

Original source SHA-256 b89a5d8806d3b45d18dfec4ac47055ec524fbe3714b51e8cce7192033e506de3

The GSCPI: A New Barometer of Global Supply Chain Pressures

Federal Reserve Bank of New York · retrieved 2026-10-10T19:40:30.164167+00:00 · verified · rights: Personal/internal business study permitted; no business/commercial paper distribution. Citation and independently authored explanation only; no copied paper text, figures, PDF or reconstructed proprietary inputs.

Original source SHA-256 b6d1ef03eab445afc4a234e47e6a9437b30b307dbe9a89f61fae65f1a4e93bb6

Global Supply Chain Pressure Index

Federal Reserve Bank of New York · retrieved 2026-10-10T19:39:59.797+00:00 · verified · rights: Link and follow issuer-specified attribution. No issuer page, chart or image is redistributed.

Original source SHA-256 8ff8f835fdb87700e604104d4f9f04947b8a04420fe7f1785254048fa8db09d5

Version history and corrections

Reference this version: Storrque Intelligence. “A global signal, a local decision” · Version 0.1 · 12 Oct 2026. Preserved version record.

  1. Version 0.1 · 2026-10-12 · Initial edition.

No corrections recorded.